ScarcitytoSurplus
Leveraging Existing Infrastructure for Rapid Electricity Deployment
The U.S. race to power AI innovation and reshore domestic manufacturing faces a critical roadblock
The Problem
Unprecedented Demand Surge
U.S. load forecasts have surged fivefold to 128 GW from 2025-2029, driven by data centers (65-90+ GW), manufacturing, and electrification.
Capacity Addition Shortfall
Planned firm capacity additions will cover only 64% of projected peak load growth through 2029. New gas plants face 5-8 year delays due to equipment shortages and permitting, putting them online no earlier than 2030-2032—too late for immediate needs.
Grid Connection Bottlenecks
Over 2,500 GW of capacity is stuck in interconnection queues with 5-6 year waits and rapidly rising costs. High-voltage transformer shortages, transmission upgrade timelines, and grid study delays extend deployment by years. Without solutions bypassing these bottlenecks, the U.S. faces higher electricity prices and constrained economic growth.
The Solution: Surplus Interconnection
What is Surplus Interconnection?
Surplus Interconnection Service allows new electricity supply resources to connect to the grid using existing infrastructure that serves already operating generators, without exceeding the total output capacity already allocated to the existing resource. FERC Order 845 (2018) cleared a regulatory pathway for generators to add new electricity resources to the grid by utilizing surplus capacity at existing interconnection points.
Key Results
Massive Clean Energy Capacity
Combined potential to integrate 1,339 GW of clean energy capacity (977 GW near thermal plants + 362 GW near RE sites), nearly doubling U.S. generation capacity.
Firm Capacity & Cost Savings
Adds 256 GW of firm battery capacity. Saves approximately $89 billion in avoided grid upgrade costs by reusing existing interconnection infrastructure.
Thermal Interconnections
Over 200 GW of fossil capacity has capacity factor less than 15%, leaving grid connections unused for significant periods. Moreover, 75% of fossil capacity has operating cost higher than local solar LCOE. By co-locating new solar and wind generation at these sites, we can bypass lengthy interconnection queues and add cheap electricity while making use of the current infrastructure.
Key Results
Abundant Local Resources
15,400 GWOver 15,400 GW of renewable energy capacity exists within just 6 miles of existing fossil fuel plants. Most plants (90%) have enough nearby land to build 5 times their current capacity in renewables.
Cost-Effective Today
75% ViableAt 75% of existing fossil plants (700 GW), building new solar is already cheaper than running the existing plant. For wind, this is true at 80% of plants. By 2030, this will be true almost everywhere.
Ready for Renewables
977 GW by 2030977 GW of solar and wind capacity can be added to existing grid connections by 2030 - nearly doubling US electricity generation capacity.
Nationwide Solution
38 StatesIn 38 states, more than 50% of new clean electricity demand by 2030 can be met by building solar and wind near existing thermal plants.
Quick Wins Available
200 GW ReadyOver 200 GW of fossil plants are barely used (running less than 15% of the time) and cost $20/MWh more to operate than typical plants - making them prime candidates for renewable additions.
Renewable Interconnections
Renewable plants have low capacity values (PJM: solar - 9%, wind - 35% vs. gas - 79%) and poor interconnection utilization (solar: 29.9%, wind: 46.9%), meaning expensive grid infrastructure sits idle much of the time. Adding 6-hour storage can enable addition of additional renewable capacity and dramatically increase capacity value and utilization rates to levels comparable to baseload gas plants, effectively turning variable renewables into firm power resources.
Key Results
Massive Firm Capacity Addition
256 GW StorageIntegrating 6-hour battery storage at existing RE sites delivers 256 GW of firm, dispatchable capacity - over 10x more than the 22 GW of new gas plants expected by 2029.
Double Renewable Generation
+362 GW REExisting interconnections can support an additional 362 GW of renewable energy (276 GW solar, 86 GW wind), representing a 141% increase from current 256 GW to 618 GW total.
Higher Interconnection Utilization
141% IncreaseStrategic co-location maximizes expensive grid infrastructure usage, dramatically improving interconnection utilization from current average of 37% to 76% after surplus additions.
Exceeds National Energy Needs
621 TWh AnnuallyOptimizing existing interconnections yields 621 TWh of additional clean energy annually - 138% of forecasted U.S. electricity demand growth through 2029 (450 TWh).
Regional Grid Reliability
5-6x Coverage in Key RegionsERCOT could meet 135% of projected peak growth, SPP and MISO could satisfy their peak needs 5-6x over, and PJM could fulfill 50% of its 29.6 GW increase within 1-2 years.